WTI Crude Daily 12Aug

Wednesday's Auction

via The Daily

As noted in Tue's analysis, the focus into Wed's auction on response to the Stopping Point Low, 42.69s, was key as  buying interest emerged near there both in the Globex and NY auctions. Focus into Thu's auction on response to developing Balance, 42.80s-43.90s, within the context of Daily Value sideways at/near Major Structural Support.

WTI Crude: Daily TPO Profile Structure & Price Review, ECB. 10Jan

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 20Jun

Overnight

As of 730 CST, 
the market has auctioned lower from Wed's key FOMC Range, 99s-97.80s, achieving a Stopping Point at/near last week's POC, 96s. 

Market poised for Gap Open lower, Gap rules apply.

WTI Crude: The ECB & NFP Effects. 07Jun

Our Economic Release Studies offered as part of the Daily Statistical Levels Study. 

ECB

Our monthly ECB study comparing the daily ranges of rolling 3 month figures v the 60day and the 30min figures v the 20day (Apr). 

Generally, the London Session offered higher rotational potential than the NY session relative to the longer term averages. Additionally, the data illustrates the 24hour continuum in the electronic trade era where the bulk of rotation is completed by the early Pit session rather than during it. 

Here, the study plotting the ECB days' range amplitudes relative to 20day Average Daily Range, 1st & 2nd Standard Deviations during Feb-Apr 2013.

The data shows both London & NY sessions exceeded the Average Daily Range a majority of the ECB days (indicated by the green coloration).

Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 06Jun (Jun ECB) and projected levels/inferential analysis for 07Jun. 

The market did indeed auction an Average Daily Range within the first hour (Initial Balance) of the Pit session following the ECB announcement.

VWAP algo dead zone followed as the study inferred. 

NFP

Our monthly NFP study comparing the daily ranges of rolling 3month figures v the 60day and the 30min figures v the 20day (Apr). 

Generally, the last hour of the London Session along with the early NY session offered the highest rotational potential.  

Here, the study plotting the NFP days' range amplitudes relative to 20day Average Daily Range, 1st & 2nd Standard Deviations during Feb-Apr 2013. 

The data shows the bulk of both London & NY sessions did not exceed the Avg Daily Range (indicated by the blue coloration).

Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price action for 07Jun (Jun NFP) and projected levels/inferential analysis for 10Jun.

The market did auction between an Avg Daily Range & 1st Std Dev during the London session ahead of & into the NFP report as well as near an Average Daily Range within the morning portion of the Pit session.  

Narrow balance followed as the study inferred.

A holistic view based on the market generated data and probability logic. 

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WTI Crude: FOMC Effect...Feckless. 20Mar

 The FOMC study plotting the rolling 3 month average of recent FOMC days v 60 day averages and the 30min behavior.

1. Note the lackluster 30min behavior in the NY session with the exception of the 1130am outlier, a function of the shift of release time which today is scheduled for 1pm.

2. Today's Globex session has diverged from recent behavior in exceeding range amplitude.

Alternatively, here we see the same data plotted for recent ECB days. Two phenomenon are of note relative to FOMC: 

1. Over both London & NY sessions, ECB days have offered more normalized volatility potential compared to FOMC. 

2. Within the NY session, ECB 30min averages have exceeded the 20day averages (Jan here). 

While media price propaganda is ample on economic releases, 

the market generated data reveals less volatile behavior than one would be led to believe

in the case of FOMC. 

For additional information, 

please visit our subscription page. 

WTI Crude: The ECB Effect. 07Feb

Below is a series of studies
plotting the effect of the ECB
on the WTI auction.

Here, we see the rolling 3 month

daily range averages for Q4 2012
for ECB days v 20 day & 60 day averages. 

Alternatively,
below we see the rolling 3 month
daily range averages for Q4 2012
for FOMC days v 20 day & 60 day averages. 

Conclusion?...

Relative to normalized volatility, 

the ECB days offered much better 

potential than the FOMC days, 

especially in the NY Pit Session. 

This phenomenon occurred in Q2-Q4 of 2012. 

For additional information, 

please visit our subscription page. 

WTI Crude: The FOMC Effect. 30Jan

Wondering what effect FOMC really has on the

WTI market?

Here, we see the rolling 3 month

daily range averages for Q3 2012

for FOMC days v 20 day & 60 day averages.

Notably, the variance and range for FOMC

is surprisingly muted. 

Alternatively, 

below we see the same data plotted

for ECB days during Q3 2012.

Conclusion?...

While FOMC can potentially be a catalyst,

probability actually favors the opposite 

relative to normalized range expectations

(as compared to ECB as an example).

This phenomenon occurred in Q2, Q3, & Q4 of 2012. 

For additional information, 

please visit our subscription page.