Week In Review 20Dec

13-18Dec Auction

via The Daily

Central Banks

• FOMC Statement. (Federal Reserve)
• Brief History Of US Inflation, 1775-2015. (WSJ)
• What The Fed Rate Hike Means. (Paul Craig Roberts)

Geopolitics

• Russia Boosts Oil Sales In Asia As OPEC Stalls. (Reuters)
• Spending Bill To Lift Export Ban. (The Hill)
• NATO Defense Cuts To End Aid Security Concerns. (Telegraph)
• UN Climate Change Conference: Turning Point For Energy? (Wood Mackenzie)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• Cheap Oil Forces SWFs To Retreat. (Reuters)
• With Oil Hedges Rolling Off, Shale Producers Face Test. (Reuters)

WTI 16Dec

Wednesday's Auction

via The Daily

As noted in Tue's analysis, the focus into Wed's auction on response to 37.90s-37.40s, was key as selling interest emerged near there, driving price lower toward the Daily 2nd Std Dev Low. Focus into Thu's auction on response to 35.30s-35.60s, near the Composite Cluster Low. 

Weekend News 31Oct

25-30 Oct Auction   
via The Daily 

Central Banks

• Brainard: Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy. (BIS)
• The Circle That Controls The $14Trillion Credit Insurance Market. (Bloomberg)
• BOJ Holds Steady On Policy. (Telegraph)
  

Source: EIA (Oct 2015)

Geopolitics

• Taking Stock Of ISIS Oil. (Energy Fuse)
• How Russia Targets The West's Soft Underbelly. (Diplomat)
• US Plans To Sell Down SPR To Raise Cash. (Bloomberg)
  

Supply/Demand & Markets

• EIA: -3.4mil v +3.4mil exp. (EIA)
• How Technology Changed World Oil Markets. (Platts)

WTI 28Oct

Wednesday's Auction

via The Daily

As noted in Tue's analysis, the focus into Wed's auction on response to developing Balance, 42.58s-43.35s, was key as buying interest emerged, driving price aggressively higher, achieving the Stopping Point, 45.98s, beyond the Daily 2nd Std Dev High. Focus into Thu's auction on response to developing Balance, 45.40s-46s.

WTI Crude Daily 17Sep

Thursday's Auction

via The Daily

As noted in Wed's analysis, the focus into Thu's auction on response to Wed's upper cluster, 46.40s-47.35s, was key as buying interest emerged at/near the Breakout rea/Prior Resistance, 46.40s. Focus into Fri's auction on response to developing Balance, 46.40s-47.70s.

Midweek News 17Dec

Tuesday's Auction 

via The Daily

As noted in Tue's analysis, focus on response to the low amidst the current Trade Cluster, 53.60s-57.15s, was key in Wed's auction as buying interest emerged near Key Structural Support, as short covering inventory adjustment occurred amidst the beginning of the Balance phase of market development. Focus on response to Wed's Breakout Area/Low Usage Support, 56.80s-57.40s into Thu's auction. 

Wednesday's Auction 

via The Daily

Central Banks

• FOMC Statement. (Federal Reserve)

• Everyone Wrong About End Of QE? (Lance Roberts via Street Talk Live)

Geopolitics

• Saudi Oil Minister Outlines Strategy. (Saudi Press Agency)

• US Oil Export Debate. (Platts)

• Chancellor Merkel Won't Let Ukraine Get In The Way Of Business With Russia. (Marin Katusa via Casey Research)
  

Source: EIA (Dec 2014)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• EIA: -800k v -2.6mil exp. (EIA)
  

•  Oil Prices Unsustainably Low. (John Kemp via Reuters)

Midweek News 29Oct

Tuesday's Auction

via Daily Statistical Levels Study

Gap Higher Opens
via Daily Statistical Levels Study

As noted in Tue's analysis, focus on response to developing POC, 81s, within the Key Trade Cluster, 80.40s-81.70s, was key in Wed's auction as buying interest drove price higher from the POC, 81s, to 82.90s, within the upper quadrant of the longer term Balance, 79s-84s. Focus on response to the FOMC Buying Tail, 82s- 81.70s, into Thu's auction.

Wednesday's Auction 

via Daily Statistical Levels Study

Central Banks

• Fed Ends QE3, Maintains Low Rate Bias. (Federal Reserve)

• Fed's Dual Mandate Tracker Affirms Taper Timing. (Geo-Graphics via CFR)

Geopolitics

• Sanctions Bind Russia's Energy Elite To Putin. (Reuters)

• History Of Controls On US Oil Exports. (Reuters)

Supply/Demand & Markets 

• 2mil v 3.3mil exp. (Platts)
  

• Goldman's Take On Crude. (Value Walk)
  

•  Natural Gas: The New Gold. (Rabah Arezki via IMF)

Weekend News 22Jun

As noted in last week's analysis, focus into this week's auction on the developing trade cluster, 107.50s-106.50s, was consistent with the phases of market development as last week's Stopping Point High was confirmed and followed by Balance development and retracement toward the prior Major Resistance/Key Breakout Area.

Graphics

• Total Energy Production By State,  2011. (EIA)

• Still Waiting For Fed Rate Hikes. (Bespoke)

Central Banks

• Five Facts About Shadow Banking. (FT)

Geopolitics

• Putin Aide Proposes Anti-Dollar Alliance In Response To US Involvement In Ukraine. (Voice Of Russia)

• $120 Oil Flagged As "Danger" For Global Economy On Iraq Crisis. (Bloomberg)

• Russia Focusing On Market Fundamentals As Politics Dominates Oil Markets, Sayeth Russian Energy Minister. (Platts)

• Bloody History In Iraq Repeating. (Charles Duelfer via New York Daily News)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• $120 Oil Flagged As "Danger" For Global Economy On Iraq Crisis. (Bloomberg)

Weekend News 22Mar

The market balanced early week around last week's Settlement, 98.90s, before responsive sell programs entered, driving price lower, as development of the Balance phase continued following last week's Stopping Point Low. Initiative sell programs entered at Key Structural Support, 97.50s, probing the low to 97.35s, the Weekly Stopping Point Low. Responsive buy programs entered, driving price higher from Key Support, confirming the low. Price discovery higher continued toward Key Structural Resistance, 98.90s, ahead of the midweek EIA & FOMC data releases as Apr-May contract roll completed.

Responsive two sided Balance trade occurred mid-week, 99.50s-98s, as the sellside defense of Key Structural Resistance continued. The market formed a d shape structure into Fri's session, illustrating the maturing of the trading range, implying the potential for a directional move. Initiative buy programs entered during Fri's session, driving price out of Balance as short inventory adjustment occurred, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point, 100.25s, near the Overhead Low Usage High. Responsive sell programs entered there, developing balance during Fri's session, before initiative sell programs entered , driving price toward the Breakout Point, closing the week at/near 99.45s.

Central Banks

• ECB On SRM Agreement. (ECB)

• Fed Bank Stress Tests. All Is Well. (Federal Reserve)

Geopolitics

• IMF Statement On Mission To Ukraine. (IMF)

• Financial Warfare. (Jim Rickards via Yahoo Finance)

• US Targets Russia With Sanction Against Gunvor Billionaire. (Bloomberg)

Supply/Demand & Markets 

• China Commodity Financing Deals, CCFDs. (Zerohedge)

• Urals & North Sea Crude Recent Activity. (Platts)

• Blythe Masters. (Businesweek)

Midweek News 19Mar

 

Source: EIA (Mar 2014)

Graphics

• FOMC Outlook. (Bespoke)

Central Banks

• FOMC Bullet Points. (Zerohedge)

• FOMC Statement. (Federal Reserve)

• Mark Carney's "Single, Timeless Mission". (Guardian)
  

• Gold Fishing. (Axel Merk via ValueWalk)

• Bankers Fear Leaks From ECB Health Check. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

• A Corporate Debt View Of The West's Standoff With Russia. (Reuters)

• Higher Food Prices Sowing Seeds Of Political Risk. (WSJ)

• MA(F)D. (Reuters)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• API: +5.9mil v +2.6mil exp. (Reuters)

• EIA: +5.9mil v +2.7mil exp. (EIA)

• Mercuria's Quiet Rise. (Businessweek)

• Mercuria Buy JPMorgan's Physical Commodities Business. (Reuters)

WTI Crude: Daily Structure & Price: FOMC. 19Mar

WTI Crude: Daily Structure & Price, FOMC. 30Jan

Midweek News 18Dec

Source: EIA (Dec 2013)

Graphics

• Extreme Futures Quotes. (Nanex)

• China's Property Market. (Citi via ValueWalk) 

• Rich v Poor Charts. (Zerohedge)

Central Banks

• Fed Tapers, $10bln. (Zerohedge)
  

• The ECB Push For Bank Resolution (& Consolidation). (Reuters)
  

• Don't Plan On Tapering, Sayeth Gundlach. (Advisor Perspectives via ValueWalk)

• Will The Fed Finally Blink? (Validus) 

Geopolitics

• Merkel Seals Cabinet, New Coalition. (WSJ)
  

• US Lawmakers Ask Trade Czar To Stem Data Threats. (AP)
  

• Mexico Prepares To End 75yr Ban On Foreign Investment In Oil Fields. (Bloomberg)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• API: -2.5mil v -2.3mil exp. (Reuters)

• EIA: -2.9mil v -2.4mil exp. (EIA)

• The Great Arctic Energy Grab. (BBG Business Week)
  

WTI Crude: Daily TPO Profile Structure & Price. FOMC 18Dec

Overnight:

As of 730 CST, 
the market has auctioned within Tue's range during the Globex session as development of Balance, 97.30s-98s, under the Key Overhead Supply Cluster, 97.80s-98.30s, continues. 

EIA & FOMC pending....

Midweek News 30Oct

Source: EIA (Oct 2013)

Graphics

• Asia Inflation. (Reuters/Catherine Trevethan)

•  Asia Exports. (Reuters/Catherine Trevethan)

Central Banks

• Fed Maintains Stimulus. (Reuters)

• Fed To Outline Commodity Policy, 2014. (Reuters)

• PBOC Seeks To Reassure Markets As Short Term Rates Spike. (Reuters)

• BOJ Maintains Policy. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

• Two Years After: Libya Divided. (Platts)

• North Dakota Spill Highlights Obama Delay On Rules. (Bloomberg)
  

Supply/Demand & Markets

• API: +5.9mil. (Reuters)

• EIA: +4.1mil v +3.5mil exp. (Platts)

• US Shale Production & WTI. (Oil Price) 

•  US: #1 in Oil Production. (Casey Research via Zerohedge)
  

Weekend News 21Sep

The market opened this week at/near 107.50s, upticking to last week's Settlement area, 108s, where sell programs entered, driving price lower, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point Low, 104.40s, within the Sep Structural Buying Tail, 104.20s-105.70s, balancing, 104.50s-105.40s, ahead of the key catalyst for the week, the FOMC policy announcement.

The Fed's non-taper decision resulted in buy programs entering, driving price higher, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point High, 108.15s, where sell programs responded, driving price lower, closing at/near 104.80s. 

Graphics

• Einstein & The Great Fed Robbery. (Nanex)
• Control In Syria. (Reuters)
• US Fed Balance Sheet & MSCI Asia. (Reuters/Catherine Trevethan)
• Dow Performance Under Various Fed Chairmen. (Bespoke)

Central Banks

• Taper In Context Of Bank Loans. (Reuters)
• Options' Prices Key To Assessing Outlook, Sayeth Fed's Kocherlakota. Indeed, if interested in assessing outlooks based on flawed pricing model (Black-Scholes). "LTCM".... (Reuters)

Geopolitics

• Markets Await German Elections. (Guardian)
• Wall St. Launches Defense Of Physical Commodities Role. (Reuters)
• Tightening The Silk Road Belt. The US Makes War, China Makes Trade. (Diplomat)
• Why The US Needs To Fall Out Of Love w/Home Ownership. (Quartz)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• US Oil Output Exceed Import By Most Since 1997. (AEI)
• Oil Theft Cripple Nigeria's Production, Cost State $5bil Per Year. (UPI)
• Returning Libyan Supply. (Platts)

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 19Sep

Overnight:

As of 730 CST, 
following yesterday's +2 sigma rally, the market has balanced, 107.30s-108.20s,at/near Wed Settlement, 107.28s.

The market is now developing a new upper trade cluster, 107.20s-108.20s, following Wed's directional auction. Focus on response to either edge of Balance into the Pit session. 

Our daily statistical study plotting key reference levels/price for 17Sep & projected levels /inferential analysis for 18Sep.

Result?...

The market balanced, 104.50s-105.80s, before buy programs drove price higher both on EIA narrative, continuing on the Fed's No Taper narrative. The market achieved the Pit range Stopping Point, 107.47s, near the Daily 2nd Std Dev High, 107.13s.

Knowledge of the statistical levels helped inform our subscribers of the potential destinations for the auction in the event the Fed had or had not tapered to best inform trading decisions. 

Interested in what to look for tomorrow?

Please visit our subscription page for a free trial. 

Midweek News 18Sep

Source: EIA (Sep 2013)

Graphics

• Crude Oil Inventories. (Bespoke)
• Gold Market Reaction To FOMC. (Nanex)

Central Banks

• Surprise, Surprise, Surprise: No Taper. (Reuters)
• Global Credit Excess Worse Than Pre-Lehman, Sayeth BIS Veteran. (Telegraph)
• Asian Fund Outflows Muted In Spite Of Taper Concerns. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

• Assad Vows To Destroy Chemical Weapons. (RT)
• Libya In Disarray. (RT)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• API: -250k v -1.4mil exp. (Reuters)
• EIA: -4.4mil v -1.2mil exp.  (EIA)
• Increasing Middle East Energy Consumption, Effects On Export. (Platts)
• Tight Oil Potential Outside US Huge, Bigger Costs, Sayeth IHS. (Reuters)

HFT/Algo

• Trading Bots Create Extreme Events Faster Than Human Reaction. (Ars Technica)

WTI Crude: Daily TPO & Price. 18Sep

Overnight:

As of 730 CST, 
the market auctioned higher from Tue Settlement, 105.42s, achieving the Stopping Point, 106.60s, at/near the Daily 1st Std Dev High into the London session. Sell programs entered there, driving price lower, retracing the rally. 

Contract roll is currently underway from Oct-Nov.  Focus on response to either edge of current Balance, 105s-106.60s, into Pit session. EIA pending followed by FOMC at 1pm CST....

Weekend News 23Jun

The market auctioned higher early week from last week's Settlement, 97.85s, early in the week, achieving a Stopping Point, 99.21s, at/near the Average Weekly Range High into Wed's session.

The usual focus midweek on Wed EIA data was trumped by the late session FOMC statement and Bernanke speak which followed. Responsive selling drove price from the Key Structural Resistance Area, 99.20s, lower toward the Key Structural Support, 97.40s. 


There, initiated selling entered, driving price lower, confirming a Structural breakdown, resulting in a substantial long liquidation inventory adjsutment, as inferred last week. The market achieved the Stopping Point, 93.12s, at/near the Lower Jun POC, closing the week at/near 93.75s. 

Graphics

• YTD Country Performance. (Bespoke)

Central Banks

• The NINE Top Contenders For Fed Chair. (Business Week)
• "Low" Inflation Gives Bernanke Time To Press On With QE. (Bloomberg)

Geopolitics

• Putin Says Rosneft Close To $60bil China Oil Deal. (Reuters)
• OPEC Role Unchanged Despite US Oil Production Increase, Sayeth IEA Chief. (IEA)
• Further Sanctions Against Iran Will Be Counterproductive. (Oil Price)
• In-Q-Tel. (Fox Business)

Supply/Demand & Markets

• Global Technically Recoverable Shale Resources. (EIA)