Wondering what effect FOMC really has on the
WTI market?
Here, we see the rolling 3 month
daily range averages for Q3 2012
for FOMC days v 20 day & 60 day averages.
Notably, the variance and range for FOMC
is surprisingly muted.
Alternatively,
below we see the same data plotted
for ECB days during Q3 2012.
Conclusion?...
While FOMC can potentially be a catalyst,
probability actually favors the opposite
relative to normalized range expectations
(as compared to ECB as an example).
This phenomenon occurred in Q2, Q3, & Q4 of 2012.
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