Our weekly TPO Profile graphics for 14Jun.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).
The graphs show the monthly timeframe development (left)
of May's Balance phase, 90s-97.30s, followed by Jun's first half
buyside directional phase, 91s-96.50s.
Last week's range extension higher (right) illustrates
the Structural significance of 97.40s and potential for price
discovery higher in the event of that key Structural level holding as support.
Our weekly statistical study plotting the key reference levels/weekly close for 14Jun, projected levels and inferential analysis for week ending 21Jun.
Result?...
The market auctioned higher from last week's Settlement, 97.85s, early in the week, achieving a Stopping Point, 99.21s, at/near the Average Weekly Range High into Wed's session.
The usual focus on Wed EIA data was trumped by the FOMC statement and the Bernanke Speak which followed. Responsive selling drove price from the Key Structural Resistance Area, 99.20s, lower toward the 97.40s. There, initiated selling entered, driving price lower, confirming a Structural breakdown, resulting in substantial long liquidation inventory adjustment, as inferred last week. The market achieved the Stopping Point, 93.12s, at/near the Weekly 1st Std Dev Low, closing the week at/near the 93.75s.
Ultimately, the recent buyside directional phase and structural breakout above 97.50s was met with Major Overhead Supply, 98.50s-100.50s, and a perceived deflationary narrative from the chief central currency printers. This week's auction confirms a false upside breakout, implying resumption of the prior Balance Phase, 97.50s-90s, with potential to challenge the Key Structural Support, 90s.
These studies helped inform our subscribers of the structural significance of the 97.40s, the upside destination (Major Overhead Supply 99.50s-100.50s) and the implication of a failure of 97.40s. Knowledge of this data helped frame strategy (long early week into Key Structural & Statistical Resistance, short following midweek sell response at Major Supply), also providing quantifiable destinations in congruence with market structure.
The usual focus on Wed EIA data was trumped by the FOMC statement and the Bernanke Speak which followed. Responsive selling drove price from the Key Structural Resistance Area, 99.20s, lower toward the 97.40s. There, initiated selling entered, driving price lower, confirming a Structural breakdown, resulting in substantial long liquidation inventory adjustment, as inferred last week. The market achieved the Stopping Point, 93.12s, at/near the Weekly 1st Std Dev Low, closing the week at/near the 93.75s.
Ultimately, the recent buyside directional phase and structural breakout above 97.50s was met with Major Overhead Supply, 98.50s-100.50s, and a perceived deflationary narrative from the chief central currency printers. This week's auction confirms a false upside breakout, implying resumption of the prior Balance Phase, 97.50s-90s, with potential to challenge the Key Structural Support, 90s.
These studies helped inform our subscribers of the structural significance of the 97.40s, the upside destination (Major Overhead Supply 99.50s-100.50s) and the implication of a failure of 97.40s. Knowledge of this data helped frame strategy (long early week into Key Structural & Statistical Resistance, short following midweek sell response at Major Supply), also providing quantifiable destinations in congruence with market structure.
Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic.
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