19-24October Auction
As noted in
last week's analysis, focus in this week's auction was on maturation potential of the Balance,
79.30s-83.95s. Responsive trade continued to emerge at both ends of the Balance
as maturation continues. The more normal or Gaussian the distribution becomes around the POC, 81s, the more
asymmetric the potential becomes for a directional breakout. Both Selling
Excess (82.80s-82.10s) & Buying Excess (79.40s-80.35s) were present in this
week's auction indicating longer time-frame
Sellside and Buyside interests
capping the market within this Balance. The excess that fails will provide
clarity into the next likely directional phase. Focus on response at both the
POC, 81s, and Balance Edges into next week.
26-31October Auction
Central Banks
- QE's End? (Telegraph)
- ECB Stress Tests Understand Risks Of Deflation & Leverage. (Telegraph)
- As Fed QE "Ends", BOJ Expands QE. (Zerohedge)
Geopolitics
- EIA Study Removes Final Hurdle For US Oil Exports. (John Kemp via Reuters)
- Western Firms Risk Exclusion As Abu Dhabi Mulls Partners. (NYTimes)
- Asia Buys Less Iranian Crude. (Reuters)
Supply/Demand & Markets
- Oil Market Report Oct14. (IEA)
- Norway SWF Has Weakest Return Since 2013. (Bloomberg)
- The US' SPR. (Platts Capitol Crude)