Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 22Feb.
The graphs show the Jan distribution
rally phase followed by the Feb balance
phase, 98s-95s, identifying the longer term
shift in market development phase,
culminating in a new directional phase lower
following the breakdown at the key structural low, 95s.
This shift to a directional phase implied
high probability of price discovery lower this week
toward Major structural support, 91.50s.
This is in fact what occurred.
Plotted are Support (blue), Resistance (red),
and Points of Control (green) indicating monthly & weekly
levels of significance based on the market structure, not opinion.
This graph shows our weekly statistical expectations for 25Feb-01Mar: (92.03, 91.75, 91.46 potential support levels) as well as inferential analysis for the week.
Result?...
The market auctioned at/near last week's stopping point, 92.90s, with range extension lower toward the Major structural support at 91.50s (the Weekly 2nd Std Dev Low expectation) through mid-week. The 93 area was defended repeatedly by the sellside resulting in a Thu Sell Spike, 92.60s-91.60s, and Gap Lower open into Fri's Pit session. Following this breakdown of Major structural support, the market auctioned toward the Oct trade cluster, 90.40s-87.90s (here), exceeding a 2 sigma move for the second straight week, closing near the Oct trade cluster POC, 90.30s, at 90.65s.
The context of a structural breakdown of support into this week informed our subscribers that probability favored continued price discovery lower at least to the next Major structural support, 91.50s. Knowledge of these structural & statistical levels of significance (95s, 91.50s, 90.20s, 89s) provide quantifiable, potential destinations in congruence with the market structure.
These graphs provide a holistic market view based on the market generated data, not opinion, to inform the participant of structural levels of significance, statistically probable destinations, and resting supply/demand clusters of the auction. These tools facilitate trade efficiency and minimize asymmetric risk.
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