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| USD-WTI negative correlation trend continues. Positive correlation extreme in USD-WTI coincided with intermediate low/ recent balance from $84-87s. |
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| This week's auction began with balance in the near term supply cluster referenced last week (87.50s-88.70s). The market sold off below that cluster toward the monthly POC (85s) in a liquidating break of weak longs. Following this inventory adjustment, the market rallied into week's end closing at/near the high, 89s. Structurally, there are now buying tails in both monthly & weekly profiles. Probability favors a challenge of key supply at/near 89.70s. Should sellside fail, price discovery likely into major overhead supply cluster 91-93s. Alternatively, should buyside fail at/near 89.70s, price discovery likely back into key demand cluster, 84-87s. |
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- US Energy Policy. (Bloomberg Government)
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