Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 01Nov.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Structural Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).
The left graphic shows the Oct monthly timeframe distribution
breakdown below Sep's Major Structural Support, 101s,
as price discovery lower continued during Oct toward
Last week's auction (right) shows the Structural Breakdown
below 96s into early Nov.
Our weekly statistical study plotting key reference levels/weekly close for 01Nov, projected levels/inferential analysis for 08Nov, and weekly range frequency table.
Result?...
The market opened this week at/near 94.60s, balancing in last week's lower cluster, 95.30s-94.40s, before sell programs entered, driving price below Key Structural Support at/near 94.20s,
ultimately achieving the Weekly Stopping Point Low, 93.05s, where buy programs entered, driving price higher, establishing the Structural Stopping Point Low following the recent weeks' sellside auction.
The market auctioned higher into midweek, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point High, 95.40s, at/near prior Key Structural Resistance as the Balance phase of market development began. The market balanced, 95.30s-93.80s, pricing in EIA narrative and the unexpected ECB rate cut, closing at/near 94.50s.
Ultimately, this week's auction consisted of continued price discovery lower as inferred last week from Jul's Major Structural Support, 96s, seeking a Structural Stopping Point Low, which was achieved at/near 93s. Balance then developed from 93s to 95.40s as sell programs entered at/near Prior Overhead Supply. The market failed to achieve the Weekly Minimum Range Expectation, 90.16s.
These studies helped inform our subscribers of the likely potential for continued price discovery lower during this week's auction as the market sought a Structural Stopping Point Low. Knowledge of the phases of market development provided strategy in congruence with the market structure, in this case short positions until the Stopping Point development, followed by responsive trade (long support/short resistance) during the back half of the week.
Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic.
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