Our weekly TPO profile graphics for 06Sep.
Plotted: Structural Support (blue), Resistance (red), and Points of Control (green).
The graphs show the monthly timeframe development (left)
of Jul's buyside directional phase, 96s-108.90s, followed
by Aug's Balance, 102.20s-108.90s and subsequent false
breakout up to 112.25s.
Last week's auction (right) documented the development of
the Structural Buying Tail, 104.20s-105.70s, following
the late Aug failed breakout/Structural Selling Tail, 112.25s-110.50s.
The week's rally toward the Selling Tail overhead
implied the response at/near 110.50s was of key focus.
Our weekly statistical study plotting key reference levels/weekly close for 06Sep, projected levels /inferential analysis for 13Sep, and weekly range frequency table.
Result?...
The market opened the week at/near Key Structural Resistance, 110.50s, balancing, 110s-110.50s, where sell programs entered, driving price lower, achieving the Weekly Stopping Point, 106.40s, at/near Aug's POC into midweek.
Buy programs entered, driving price higher, filling in the low usage area, 108s-109.20s, encountering sell programs at/near the 109.20s, continuing the rotational trade as the current Balance area, 106.30s-109.20s, develops. The market closed at/near 108.20s.
Ultimately, as inferred last week, this week's auction did challenge the Major Structural Selling Tail Low, 110.50s, encountering the sell response there, resulting in rotational trade within the larger context Balance. The Structural formation of the Selling Tail, 112.25s-110.50s, two weeks ago, informed our view of the longer timeframe sellside capping the market overhead. This weekend has seen a potential breakthrough regarding the Syrian geopolitical narrative with the tentative US-Russian brokered deal regarding chemical weapons caches.
This sequence of events illustrates the value that the Structural view of the market data provides. In spite of the very real military threats, instability, and the unknown, the geopolitical premium had been priced in. The development of the Major Structural Selling Tail implied the buyside geopolitical rally phase had terminated, well ahead of the current potential resolution. The narrative remains fluid, but barring real events (deal failure, new attacks, etc.), the market will require new catalysts to overcome Major Supply overhead.
These studies helped inform our subscribers of the significance of Structural Selling Tail above & Buying Tail below, their implications, and the quantifiable destinations in congruence with the market structure. This information clarifies the most probable of outcomes especially in the midst of destabilizing events like geopolitical uncertainty along with the associated media hype.
Holistic analysis based on the market generated data and probability logic.
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