Weekend News 23Mar

As noted in last week's review here, both 93.80s and 92s were key in this week's auction. The pullback to 92s set the stage for range extension higher above the key structural resistance during this week's contract roll and larger balance context.

The market auctioned lower from last week's close toward the Wkly 1st Std Dev Low at/near 92s where there was a buyside rejection. The market rallied, adjusting the short inventory, toward the key structural high, 93.80s, breaking out higher before achieving the Weekly Stopping Point at/near 94.40s. 

There was a sellside rejection there as the market sold back toward the 92.80s, balancing during the mid-week FOMC/EIA narratives. The sellside then initiated, driving the market lower to retest the weekly low. The retest was met with a buy response as the market rallied back up the weekly range, closing in the upper quartile for the week at/near 93.75s.

Next week's response on a retest of the high at/near 94.40s will be of focus. IF 94.40s hold as resistance, price discovery potential toward 92s, likely range extension to 90.50s. IF 94.40s fail as resistance, price discovery potential toward 95/95.60s.

Graphics

• Evolution Of Fed Officials' Rate Hike Forecasts. (Reuters)
• Cyprus Effect? Federal Reserve Liquidity Swap Operations. (Merk Investments/NY Fed)
• China's PMI & Industrial Output. (Reuters)

Central Banks

• Bernanke Refreshes Easy Money Message In Spite Of Non-Voting Hawks' Complaints. (Reuters)
• Calls For Interest Rate Hikes In Brazil. (Reuters)

Geopolitics

• Burgeoning Cooperation Between China & Russia. (RT)
• BRICs Summit 2013: Development Bank Focus. (BBC)

Supply/Demand & Markets 

• China To Become Russia's Biggest Oil Client. (Bloomberg)
• Brent-WTI Spread Lowest Since July. (Bloomberg)